2009: Predictions Going Forward

With the turbulence in the stock markets and the downturn in the real economy in mind, here is a good explaination I read regarding the situation complete with predictions going forward. Read on and enjoy:

seekingalpha.com

Current Financial Crisis and The Great Depression

(Taken in entirety from Seekingalpha.com






Today marks the one year anniversary of the all-time closing high set in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. On October 9th, 2007, the DJIA set an Intra-day high of 14279.96. One year later, we are off 35.8% (as of midday Thursday). Since this current situation is currently being compared to the Great Depression, let's do some comparisons...

On September 3rd, 1929, the DJIA reached a record intra-day high of 386.1. One year later, September 3rd, 1930, it had fallen 38.5% Notice how closely that parallels the current crisis.

So looking at the current level of the Dow, are you ready to jump in at these bargain-basement levels? Before you act, let's look at what happened in years two and three of the Great Depression. Suppose you jumped into the market in September of 1930 thinking you were looking at similar bargains...


By September 3rd, 1931, the Dow had fallen 65.5% from its peak just two years before.

On July 8th, 1932, the Dow had an intra-day low of 40.56, or 89.5% off its peak in less than three years.

So the next logical question is, how long did it take to recover back to the peak of 386.1? Are you ready for this?

November 26th, 1954...a full 25 years after the peak set in 1929.


Seeing how the first year of the current crisis is trading on par with the first year of the Great Depression, one could draw the conclusion that we may not see Dow 14K again until 2032.

Brown's Bottom

In 1999 Gordon Brown somehow managed to flog more than half of Britain's painfully acquired gold reserves (400 tons) just before the gold price took off, costing us a mind-boggling £2bn. He actually managed to trade at the worst prices in the last quarter century.

It was May 1999 and the gold price had stagnated for much of the decade. The traders present — including senior executives from at least two big investment banks — warned that Brown, who was not at the meeting, could barely have chosen a worse moment.

In the room, just behind the governor’s main office, they cautioned that gold traditionally moved in decades-long cycles and that the price was likely to increase. They added that even if the sale were to go ahead, the timings and amounts should not be announced, as the gold price would plunge.

Martin Stokes, former vice-president at JP Morgan, who was also present, said: “I was surprised they had chosen the auction method. It indicated they did not have a real understanding of the gold market

Sources: TimesOnline
:burningourmoney.blogspot.com

Confessions Of An Economic Hitman

This is a rather revealing look into the world of an NSA operative, in this case John Perkins. Here he talks about his book 'Confessions of an Economic Hit Man' the Inside Story of How America Turned From a Respected Republic into a Feared Empire.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=_WRmdSND9Vg

List of international enclaves and exclaves

http://geosite.jankrogh.com/exclaves.htm

USA, European and Russian Manoeuvring

This is taken from an article in Turkish newspaper Zaman, (29/08/08)

At the heart of Washington’s weapons shield plan, coupled with NATO’s expansion policy, is a classic divide-and-conquer multi layered stratagem.

First layer: Divide the EU from Russia. This is done by placing a firm wedge between Moscow and Brussels -- thus the US scuttles the possibility of a non-confrontation EU approach towards Russia, which could possibly lead to a Europe “whole and free” or, as President Francois Mitterrand once suggested, to an area of prosperity stretching from the “Atlantic to the Urals.”
Washington also seeks to rally its increasingly unruly European partners around the principle of NATO’s collective security blanket, using rhetoric that recalls the old evil empire hegemon as a convenient scarecrow to unify the alliance. Russia’s new bugaboo status in Brussels, only further cows central European states to do Washington’s bidding. This stratagem also impedes any chance the EU may one day cast off Uncle Sam’s stewardship of European defense in favor of a CFSP (common foreign and security policy).

On another level, the US has also sought to divide in the continent between “old” and “new” Europe.

And finally in 2008, with the installation of the missile shield Washington seeks to divide the citizenry from their government. The ruling pro American elite in central Europe persist with the project, giving little or none consideration to public opposition.

Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline

This article is taken from Turkish news source Hurriyet


Russia and Armenia oppose the BTC oil pipeline. It is not a secret that Russia is uncomfortable with the BTC pipeline, which was designated as an alternative energy route.

The first leg of the BTC is Azerbaijan's capital Baku, the second one is Georgia's capital Tbilisi and the third one is Turkey's southern province of Ceyhan through Erzincan. The BTC oil pipeline, led by BP, opened in 2006 and can pump up to 1 million barrels a day of Azerbaijani crude oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
The Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline takes gas from the Shah Deniz gas field in the Caspian Sea to Erzurum in Turkey. The pipeline, jointly operated by BP and Statoil, began exports to Turkey in 2007

Russia opened war against Georgia by using the situation in South Ossetia as an excuse. The aim of this war is to overthrow the Saakashvili government, which wants to weaken the Russian domination (in the region) and seeks NATO membership.

Was this the greatest ever political speech?

Anyone disagree or care to comment?
Martin Luther King's immortal Vietnam speech on April 4, 1967 included the lines.....
'A nation that continues year after year to spend more money on military defense than on programs of social uplift is approaching spiritual death'
Time: 02:32

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3zwcQlWsPU

Dr. King was assassinated on April 4, 1968, in Memphis, Tenesee. He was posthumously awarded the Presedential Medal of Freedom by President Jimmy Carter in1977. Martin Luther King Day was established as a national holiday in the United States in 1986. In 2004, King was posthumously awarded a Congressional Gold Medal ^wikipedia


http://www.onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_653.shtml

Armenian Genocide Taboo

The Genocide taboo
Isn't it amazing that the Armenian genocide is the second most documented genocide in history but it still is not recognized by Congress. It is considered a crime to deny the massacre of Jewish people in the WWII Holocaust and the Iranian president's call for further historical study of that terrible and trajic period was rightfully reviled at Columbia, whereas successive American governments have for decades blocked the Armenian resolution from passing in the House and yesterday White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe described the events of 1915 as 'one of the greatest tragedies of the 20th century,' but believes that the determination of whether or not the events constitute a genocide should be a matter for historical inquiry, not legislation,".This despite the fact that 39 states of the United States have already recognized the Armenian Genocide.

Even Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of the modern Turkish Republic in 1923 and revered throughout Turkey, in an interview published on August 1, 1926 in The Los Angeles Examiner, talking about former Young Turks in his country said...
"These left-overs from the former Young Turk Party, who should have been made to account for the millions of our Christian subjects who were ruthlessly driven en masse, from their homes and massacred, have been restive under the Republican rule".


Article 301 is a controversial article of the Turkish penal code which makes it a crime to insult "Turkishness, including any public denigration of the Government of the Republic of Turkey, the judicial institutions of the State, the military or security organizations . Any debate different from the official Turkish line is not tolerated and many outsoken opinions of the Armenian genocide have been prosecuted, imprisoned or in the case of Hrant Dink was assassinated in Istanbul in January 2007, by Ogun Samast, a 17-year old Turkish nationalist. At present this restriction on the freedom of speech in Turkey in the form of article 301 is stalling EU negotiations with the aspiring candidate.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7040171.stm Is recognition of the truth too volatile for the US?
Turkey is a close ally of the US, an important regional player and is also on a quest to join the EU.It will surely have to develop democratically, psychologically as well as economically in order to realise it's EU dream, and this will have to involve a realistic appreciation of it's past history. But when can the truth ever be acceptable? The truth may set you free but you also need the mindset to perceive what it may mean in a positive way, otherwise the likely response is great offence and breaking of ties.
Cengiz Aktar, an academic and commentator in Istanbul, said: “Turkey has made this a question of honour but it has no other policy. We were more flexible on this issue 20 years ago than we are today". When does culpability ever outweigh sensitivities and self-interest in realpolitiks?
The timeline for the Foreign Affairs Committee to vote on the bill is expected to be Nov. 22.
The countries officially recognizing the Armenian Genocide include:
Argentina, Armenia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Lebanon, Lithuania, The Netherlands, Poland, Russia, Slovakia, Sweden, Switzerland, Uruguay, Vatican City and Venezuela. Although part of the United Kingdom, Wales also officially recognizes the Armenian Genocide. The Parliament of the State of New South Wales, Australia passed a resolution acknowledging and condemning the Armenian Genocide in 1997
International bodies that recognize the Armenian genocide include:
The European Parliament, the Council of Europe, the United Nations Sub-Commission on Prevention of Discrimination and Protection of Minorities,[70] the International Center for Transitional Justice, based on a report prepared for TARC, the International Association of Genocide Scholars,[71] the Union of American Hebrew Congregations, the World Council of Churches, the self-declared unofficial Parliament of Kurdistan in Exile,[72] and the Permanent Peoples' Tribunal.